The numbers that matter today
Sources for every figure are cited in the sections below. Similar-looking figures from different publishers are not always the same measure; see the editorial notes.
Who it affects, and what to do
1.National: more choice, weaker demand
What the data saysRedfin counted 1,510,784 homes for sale nationwide in September, up 1.7% from a year earlier [1]. Its latest weekly report, covering the four weeks ending October 18, shows demand still weakening [2]:
- Pending sales fell to 281,749, down 14.4% year over year and the lowest level in Redfin's records, which go back to 2021. They declined in all 50 of the most populous metro areas for the second week in a row.
- Active listings rose 2.1% year over year, and months of supply rose to 4.4 from 4.0. Redfin considers 4 to 5 months balanced.
- The median sale price rose just 0.2% year over year, to $390,614, and 21.7% of listings had a price cut.
One week earlier, Redfin reported that the median asking price fell 0.3% year over year, the first decline since March [3]. That headline traveled. In the next week's data, the seasonally adjusted median asking price was up 0.9% [2]. A single weekly reading is not a trend. We watch the direction over several weeks before calling a turn.
Buyers are gaining negotiating room: more homes are sitting, more sellers are cutting prices, and fewer buyers are competing. That does not mean prices fall everywhere. The effect depends on local inventory, seller motivation, property condition, and how many qualified buyers are still in the market.
A national statistic is a starting point, not a substitute for analyzing the market where you are buying or selling.
2.California: sales are weakening faster than prices
What the data saysThe California Association of REALTORS® reported for September [4]:
- Existing single-family home sales of 260,410 (seasonally adjusted annual rate), down 3.4% from August and 6.5% from September 2025.
- A statewide median price of $899,720, down 0.2% from August and up 1.7% from a year earlier.
- Active listings up 0.5% year over year, the first annual increase in eight months.
- An Unsold Inventory Index of 3.7 months, compared with 3.6 a year earlier, and a median of 29 days to sell.
Sales are falling, yet the median price is higher than a year ago. That is not necessarily a contradiction. When fewer homes sell, the mix of homes that do sell can move the median, and limited supply can support prices even as demand weakens. C.A.R. itself cautioned that large county-level swings likely reflected limited sales volume and shifts in the mix of homes sold, rather than broad changes in values [4].
A higher median sale price is not proof that every property is appreciating. Judge a property by truly comparable closed sales, its condition and location, and the time period those sales cover.
3.San Diego: fewer transactions, and two different markets
What the data saysThe Pacific Southwest Association of REALTORS® (PSAR) reported for San Diego County, all home types, in September [5]:
| Measure | September 2026 | vs. September 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $899,000 | +1.6% |
| Closed sales | 1,827 | −11.6% |
| Pending sales | 1,881 | −10.9% |
| New listings | 2,925 | −7.1% |
| Days on market until sale | 23 | 25 a year earlier |
| Inventory | 5,999 homes | About 3.0 months of supply |
| Median seller credit* | $10,000 | Unchanged |
*PSAR reports seller credits only on CRMLS-origin sales, roughly half of county transactions.
Fewer closings with supply that is still relatively tight help explain why prices are not falling as fast as sales volume. But the countywide median hides a split.
Two San Diego markets, not one
The Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS® (SDAR) breaks the same month out by property type [6]:
| September 2026 | Detached homes | Condos & townhomes |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1,079,000 (+5.8%) | $670,000 (−0.2%) |
| Homes for sale | 2,950 (−12.9%) | 2,734 (+5.8%) |
| Months of supply | 2.4 | 4.0 |
| Days on market | 37 | 44 |
| Closed sales | −13.9% | −14.0% |
Detached homes remain tight: fewer listings than a year ago and under two and a half months of supply, so prices rose even as sales fell. Condos and townhomes have more supply, take longer to sell, and prices are flat. In our reading, condo and townhome buyers countywide have noticeably more leverage today than single-family buyers. Neighborhoods vary, so check the local numbers.
An early October warning sign
Redfin's weekly data show San Diego metro pending sales down 25.4% year over year in the four weeks ending October 18, the second-largest drop among the 50 most populous U.S. metros [2]. Redfin's method and time window differ from the associations' monthly reports, so the figures are not directly comparable. The direction is consistent, though: contract signings slowed further as the average 30-year rate climbed from 6.66% in late August to 7.40% by mid-October [7].
- For buyers: study the specific property's competition, recent comparable sales, and the seller's motivation. Seller credits are part of the negotiation, not only the price.
- For sellers: pricing still matters. Fewer transactions do not guarantee that an overpriced home will attract a qualified buyer, especially for condos and townhomes.
- For investors: underwrite with realistic rents, today's financing costs, operating expenses, and exit assumptions, not appreciation alone.
4.Mortgage rates: a small weekly decline doesn't solve affordability
What the data saysFreddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% for the week of October 22, down from 7.40% the week before. A year earlier, it was 6.19% [7].
30-year fixed mortgage rate, weekly national average
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, August 6 to October 22, 2026 [7]
View as a table
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | 6.69% |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 6.67% |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 6.65% |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 6.66% |
| Sep 3, 2026 | 6.71% |
| Sep 10, 2026 | 6.76% |
| Sep 17, 2026 | 6.95% |
| Sep 24, 2026 | 7.03% |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 7.28% |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 7.4% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 7.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 7.32% |
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point on September 16, to a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [8]. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields rather than the Fed's rate directly, but the policy backdrop matters. The Fed's next decision is due October 28 [9].
What the rate change costs
Take a hypothetical $800,000 home with 20% down, so a $640,000 loan on a 30-year fixed rate:
| Rate | Monthly principal & interest |
|---|---|
| 7.32% (week of Oct. 22, 2026) | $4,396 |
| 6.19% (week of Oct. 23, 2025) | $3,916 |
| Difference | About $481 a month, or about $5,770 a year |
Illustrative calculation using Freddie Mac's national averages, a fixed rate, and a 30-year term. Principal and interest only; excludes property taxes, homeowners insurance, HOA dues, mortgage insurance, and maintenance. Not a rate quote or an offer of credit.
Even when prices hold steady, financing costs can change what a buyer can afford. Run this example with your own numbers in the free USIG Mortgage estimate (a tool from our publisher)
5.The strategy: stop asking whether it's a buyer's or seller's market
That question is too broad to drive a sound decision. Ask these five instead:
- What is happening to inventory? Are competing listings rising or falling in your neighborhood and price range?
- What are comparable homes actually selling for? Look past asking prices to closed sales, seller credits, days on market, and price cuts.
- What does the financing really cost? Calculate the payment at a realistic rate, with taxes, insurance, and HOA dues included.
- Does the property work financially? For an investment, test rent against vacancy, maintenance, operating expenses, debt service, and reserves.
- What happens if the market doesn't cooperate? Can you hold the property if appreciation stalls, rents disappoint, or refinancing costs more?
A property should make sense under reasonable assumptions, not only under the most optimistic forecast. For rentals, our publisher's Residential Investment Analyzer runs these stress tests on a specific property.
For real estate professionals: help clients separate market headlines from the economics of their specific transaction. These five questions are a simple way to frame that conversation.
The most important signal in today's housing market isn't simply that sales are falling or that prices are rising. It is the relationship between demand, available inventory, and the cost of financing. Those three forces set negotiating leverage, affordability, investment returns, and the risks buyers and sellers face. National trends provide context. Local data identifies opportunities. Property-level analysis decides whether a particular transaction makes sense.
What to watch this week
- Tue–Wed, Oct. 27–28Federal Reserve meeting. The rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET [9].
- Thu, Oct. 29Freddie Mac's next weekly mortgage-rate survey: does the 30-year average keep easing from 7.40%?
- This weekRedfin's weekly update: whether pending sales stabilize after setting a record low.
What are you seeing in your local market: more room to negotiate, or prices holding firm? Send Brenda your take, or call (657) 222-9788.
Understand the market. Verify the numbers. Stress-test the assumptions. Then make the decision.
Editorial notes
- Medians differ by source. PSAR's $899,000 covers all home types in San Diego County. SDAR reports $910,000 for all home types in the same month, and C.A.R. reports $1,050,000 for existing single-family homes in San Diego County [4] [6]. Redfin uses its own methodology and reporting windows. These figures are not interchangeable, and we do not combine them.
- Rates have dates. The 7.32% figure is Freddie Mac's weekly average for October 22, 2026. It is not a personal rate quote or a guarantee of what a borrower can get.
- The payment example is illustrative. It isolates the effect of the rate on a $640,000 loan. Actual costs depend on credit, loan terms, points, fees, and other factors.
- Analysis is labeled. Sections marked "What it means" and "Our view" are our interpretation of the reported data, not guarantees about future prices.
Sources
- Redfin — United States Housing Market (September 2026 inventory)
- Redfin — U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink to a New Low (October 22, 2026; four weeks ending October 18)
- Redfin — Housing Market Update: Sellers' Asking Prices Fall For the First Time Since March (October 15, 2026; four weeks ending October 11)
- California Association of REALTORS® — September 2026 home sales and price report (October 19, 2026)
- Pacific Southwest Association of REALTORS® — San Diego County Market Statistics (data through September 2026)
- Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS® — Monthly Indicators, September 2026
- Freddie Mac — Primary Mortgage Market Survey (weekly averages through October 22, 2026)
- Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, September 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve — FOMC meeting calendar
All figures checked against the original publishers on October 25, 2026. General information only, not legal, tax, investment, or lending advice.
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